Doc-com bust 2.0

[diurnal]

Dvorak writes about the next internet bust. Is it true? LINK (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2010339,00.asp)

[pangea33]

In my mind there are a couple major differences this time around. For one, bandwidth and hardware costs are much lower. A lot of decent power can be had for little initial cost. Building on that is the whole open-source movement that's been happening for a while, and of which I am a big supporter - giving back when I can.

Companies no longer need to dump a million plus bucks on proprietary operating system and database server licenses. Why pay $80,000 per cpu for Oracle when MySQL is a real capable alternative? Why dump mad cash into a lumbering, insecure web platform like MS Win Server and IIS, when Apache on Linux is such a good alternative?

There is always going to be a market for commercial service providers, offering Enterprise solutions to companys, but that's outside of the scope of this article. I think the profit model for the free services remains the same as it always has. Provide interesting content and capabilities in order to build the userbase, and advertisers can pay the rent. These freebies typically cater to young people living with their parents, college students, and young professionals. A killer demographic with a lot of disposable income to make the expense advertisers incur worth while.

I think things are going to be a lot different this time around, and it's a good thing. Venture capitalists and consumers got burned once, and are more likely to see through the bs a little more clearly. Provide a legitimate niche product, and useful services and you're gonna be successful. Come packing a bunch of hyperbole and you'll go the way of the dodo.

I think it's great, and I've learned a little bit since last time too. Stock options aren't something I'd consider as an incentive ever again. Nice perk, but won't be swaying my decisions when making career choices.

[PrntRhd]

The last time, tech outfits only had to post an idea and the venture capitalists threw money at it. The SuperBowl advertisements of a few celebrating their burning through capital without advertising any product was the crest/beginning of the bust. Sometimes the net worth of a company is inversely proportional to the thickness of the carpeting in their office.
This time there are some good ideas out there but investors are more impressed by a bit more maturity. Can you still get burned? Of course you can.

[classicsoftware]

I to doesn't matter that bandwidth costs less now. What matters is, this is not the USSR. Companies have to make money to survive. I don't see it. The model right now is get a hot site and get it bought by a big company.. This is a train wreck waiting to happen.

[pangea33]

What matters is, this is not the USSR. Companies have to make money to survive.

That is dead spot on, we're not a socialist country. We're capitalists who must pursue a positive ROI in order to survive in business, or fall by the wayside if we fail. I think lower costs are a direct factor in the current model, because there is no longer an endless stream of investors looking to throw VC at an idea with a little potential.

If these companies weren't seeing some sort of profit from what they're doing, they wouldn't last for any significant period of time. The safety net from the last Internet boom simply isn't there anymore, to float an unprofitable idea until a big investor bites. Plus, if a company fails miserably because they embrace a flawed business model, I won't be losing any sleep at night. It's just the ugly reality of free trade.

It's not like this even has a significant impact on my life, that I can see right now. I just find it interesting fodder for debate.

[Variable]

I posted a nice insightful piece to this thread and now I don't see it :(

[PrntRhd]

Variable:
I posted a nice insightful piece to this thread and now I don't see it
Well I did not remove it, looked at the usual places posts can hide (moderation ques are totally clean) and it is not there either.
Can you try posting again and see if it sticks?

[Variable]

It was off the cuff as usual. I don't remember all I said but I'm sure it was very good. No worries.

[jlreich]

I thought I replied to another thread the other day. Could have sworn it posted but it wasn't there when I looked at another members reply to the thread the next day.

I was confused but wrote it off thinking maybe I didn't hit the submit button, even though that would be totally unusual for me. I always read over the my reply again once I submit it. It wasn't anything particularly important.

Perhaps there are a few bugs in the new forum software besides the chat bug. Maybe the mods can keep a look out for such things. Might be a good idea to let ixl know about this and have him look in the logs for errors or anything that might give a clue.

[PrntRhd]

The point I was making is the Moderators here are lothe to delete anyone's posts, whether we agree with the sentiments expressed or not.
Posts that are against the TOS of the site are subject to removal but that is really a rarity around here, almost all users keep the discussions civil in tone.
:)

[mjc]

And the occasional oops by yours truly...but that is even rarer.

One of the last times the software was updated, it was losing parts of posts and even whole replies, but that was a major version change and there were a couple of bugs in the system.

I haven't really noticed anything out of the ordinary, for myself, but I'm not paying close attention to everyone else's posts.

[pangea33]

I don't remember all I said but I'm sure it was very good.

That's absolutely brilliant, mate. Mind if I use that one? J/K :p