Growing demand for DRAM looks set to spike prices by 53% in 2025
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Owing to the growing demand for DRAM memory and NAND flash, the prices of these components may surge up to more than 50% in 2025 – with continued uplifts expected into 2025 as well.
As per the latest report by TrendForce, the revenue of DRAM and NAND Flash is likely to go up by 75% and 77%, respectively, this year and reach a record high. Further, the report also suggests that the industry will potentially continue this surge in revenue into 2025.
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High-Bandwidth Memory will contribute 20% to total revenue in 2025
DRAM revenue is set to skyrocket, according to TrendForce's estimates. With average DRAM prices climbing 53% in 2025 and 35% in 2025, the industry is expected to generate $90.7 billion and $136.5 billion, respectively.
There are four key factors that will contribute to DRAM's revenue growth –
- Increased adaptation of HBM
- Advancements in standard DRAM technology
- Limited supply caused by reduced capital spending
- Increased demand in the server market
However, compared to DRAM, HBM is expected to contribute significantly to both – demand and overall industry pricing. In 2024, HBM is projected to account for 5% of total DRAM bit shipments but a substantial 20% of revenue.
Further, higher-value DRAM products like DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X will also contribute to surging prices. DDR5 is expected to get 40% of bit shipments in 2025 and up to 65% in 2025 – thanks to increased adaptation by the server market. Meanwhile, LPDDR5/5X will account for 50% and 60% of mobile DRAM bit shipments in 2025 and 2025, respectively.
NAND Flash revenue likely to see a 29% YoY surge in 2025
Coming to NAND Flash, TrendForce estimates that the revenue will reach $67.4 billion, which is a 77% YoY surge. For 2025. The NAND Flash revenue is projected to soar 29% YoY to $87 billion.
This revenue growth will be driven by –
- Rising adoption of high-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs, especially in AI servers
- Increasing use of QLC UFS in smartphones
- Tight supply due to restrained capital expenditures
- Rising demand from the server market
North American cloud service providers have been at the forefront of adopting QLC enterprise SSDs for their AI infrastructure.
QLC NAND is also gaining traction, and TrendForce predicts it will account for 20% of NAND flash bit shipments this year, with further growth expected in 2025. The smartphone market is also adopting QLC, with Chinese manufacturers planning to integrate QLC UFS into devices later this year. And Apple is anticipated to follow that trend in 2026.
Overall, with rising revenues in the memory industry, manufacturers will have more bandwidth for investments, which will boost the demand for upstream raw materials. However, at the same time, the cost of electronic products will also increase, and ODM/OEM companies may face a reduced profit margin.
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