The next console generation could face a major problem before it even begins. Sony’s PlayStation 6 and Microsoft’s Xbox Project Helix are expected to arrive around 2028, but rising hardware costs could push their prices far higher than previous generations. It’s worth noting that Sony’s CEO recently admitted to not knowing when the PS6 will launch, so that’s just an estimate.

According to a new analysis from Ampere Analysis, launching both systems at around $1,000 could significantly reduce how many people buy them. At the same time, it was only a few months ago when analysts were saying that “a $1,000 console will be the norm” by the time we get around to Sony’s and Microsoft’s next consoles. Even the Steam Machine climbed to four figures.

Potential impact on sales for $1,000 consoles

Ampere’s forecast – titled ‘The $1,000 next-gen problem: Why Sony and Microsoft need a new console strategy’ – suggests that if Sony and Microsoft release traditionally designed next-generation consoles at the $1,000 price point, the combined sales of the PS6 and Xbox Helix during their first five years could be up to 38% lower than the combined sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S over the same period.

The impact would not stop at hardware sales. Ampere estimates that the PlayStation and Xbox games and services market could generate around $3.4 billion less by 2031 under the $1,000 scenario compared to a situation where both consoles launch at $700. That represents a 12% reduction in spending, as a smaller user base would also mean fewer people buying games, subscriptions, downloadable content, and other digital products.

The potential price increase is largely tied to the rising cost of components. Memory and other hardware have become more expensive as demand from the AI industry continues to put pressure on the supply chain. Console makers are already dealing with higher production costs, and the situation could become even more difficult by the time the next generation arrives.

How can Sony and Microsoft keep the price tag down?

Ampere has outlined several ways Sony and Microsoft could avoid putting a $1,000 price tag on their next consoles. One option would be delaying the next generation beyond 2028 and allowing more time for component prices to stabilize. However, such a move could create other problems and extend the lifespan of the current generation even further.

Another approach would be to launch on schedule while using heavier hardware subsidies and different monetization strategies to keep the initial price lower. This could mean relying more heavily on services, digital content, or other sources of revenue to make up for lower margins on the hardware itself. PlayStation ditching physical discs in January 2028 will also help publishers save costs. Xbox may also be thinking about a digital-focused route, as per reports of a Disc to Digital scheme.

The third option would be to rethink what a next-generation console actually offers. Instead of focusing mainly on graphics improvements, Sony and Microsoft could introduce new hardware designs or use cases that provide a more noticeable difference from current-generation systems. Microsoft appears to be moving in that direction with Project Helix, which is expected to blur the line between a traditional console and a gaming PC.

For now, neither Sony nor Microsoft has confirmed the final price of their next-generation hardware. But if the $1,000 scenario becomes reality, Ampere’s analysis suggests it could make the transition to the next console generation significantly harder than usual. A recent PC Guide poll suggests only 1 in 10 gamers would be happy with a digital-only PS6, so there’s that to consider, too.

About the Author

Abdul Haddi

Abdul is a tech writer and Editor for PC Guide, specializing in all things tech, gaming, and hardware.